传统的研究方法忽略了消费者的差异,将其视为完全相同的个体,忽视了个体差异对产品扩散的速度和形态的重要影响,由此得到的结果并不能为厂商制定广告策略提供可靠的依据。元胞自动机作为一种空间、时间、状态完全离散的微观仿真模型,适用于扩散问题的研究。它从模拟个体行为入手,可以深入地刻画不同个体之间的差异,既可以得到扩散的宏观结果,也可以得到扩散的微观特征。通过仿真,论证了产品刚刚投放市场时应适当加大广告强度,而随着市场占有率的增加可以适当降低广造强度,这是一种最佳的广告策略:同时,得到了广告强度与市场占有率以及市场规模之间的量化关系。
Classical research methods ignored all the difference between the consumers, but it's quite the contrary that the difference between the consumers has an important influence of the diffusion speed and pattern. The paper examins the effects of advertising on the diffusion process of the innovation by Cellular Automata model. CA model could simulate the individuals' behavior, and describe the difference between the individuals. By simulations, it received the relationship between the advertising strength and the sales, market size. It also demonstrates that the optimal advertising policy is to advertise heavily when the innovation is introduced and reduce the level of advertising as sales increasing.