中文摘要：

当存在众多不确定输入因素时，不确定度的传递分析往往导致对数值模拟不确定度的过高估计。利用校准行为能够消减系统级数值模拟中认知不确定度的客观机制，提出一个综合利用已有系统级试验对比信息和新增建模与模拟传递信息的不确定度量化方法，结合一个虚拟试验的例子对该方法进行展示和验证。

英文摘要：

Propagation analysis often overrate uncertainty of numerical simulation, especially as many uncertain inputs exist. Taking advantage of the reality that calibration can reduce epistemic uncertainty of system？level numerical simulation, a method for uncertainty quantification is offered synthetically using comparison information based on available test data and additional propagation information of modeling and simulation. An example with virtual test is displayed in which the method is demonstrated and validated.