中文摘要：

水库运行期间库岸再造预测是工程地质领域的重要和热门研究课题之一。基于卡丘金法采用半经验性、半定量的模式，简化了水文地质条件的影响，并忽略了波浪对库岸的掏蚀作用等缺陷，针对土质岸坡，提出了基于浪蚀龛和土体临界高度的卡丘金修正法；建立了库岸再造稳定时限估算方法；并采用极限平衡法、卡丘金法和构建的土质岸坡再造预测方法对三峡库区奉节白马港岸坡进行了塌岸预测。计算结果表明，修正的卡丘金法的计算结果与其他两种预测方法相比偏小，但偏差在8．05m以内，并通过现阶段库岸地质调查表明，预测结果比较符合实情。研究成果对库岸区域土地资源开发利用及防灾减灾具有积极意义。

英文摘要：

Research on rebuilding prediction of bank slope during the operation of reservoir is one of the important and hot topics in engineering geology field. In light of defects of Kachugin method applied to bank collapse prediction on soil bank slope including using semi-empirical, semi-quantitative model, simplifying the influence of hydrogeological conditions and ignoring the effect of wave erosion on bottom of bank slope, a modified Kachugin method based on wave cut notch and critical height of soil is put forward. Estimation method for stability time limit of soil bank slope rebuilding is established. Limit equilibrium method and Kachugin method and the bank slope rebuilding prediction method are used in bank collapse prediction of Baima harbor bank slope at Fengjie in the Three Gorges Reservoir. The calculation results show that the result of modified Kachugin method is small than one by other two kinds of prediction methods; and the deviation is less than 8.05m . Based on reservoir bank geological survey at present, it is consistent with the truth one. Research results have important positive significance for land resources development and utilization in bank area and prevention and mitigation of reservoir bank.