中文摘要：

全球气候变化带来了一系列的影响，冰川的生存与发展也受到了它的影响。目前，全球变化下冰川的变化是国际冰川学界的研究热点之一。中国是世界上冰川分布最广的中纬度国家，冰川是中国西部干旱地区的重要水资源，冰川的变化对中国环境有重大影响。冰川系统模型是一种基于冰川系统理论的水文学冰川变化预测模型，该模型从系统论的角度对全球变化的背景下冰川融水的变化进行宏观预测，充分利用已有的冰川数据资料对冰川的变化趋势做出总体预测。本文以金沙江流域冰川系统为例，根据流域内的自然环境特征将其分为河源区冰川系统和非河源区冰川系统两个并列的系统，利用冰川系统模型对其在不同的气候变化情景下的响应趋势作了预测，证实了模型的正确性和可行性。这一模型的研究成果对应对全球变化可能产生的影响有积极作用。

英文摘要：

As global climate change influences on earth environment and human life deeply and widely in the recent decades, the influence of the climate change is in spotlight. The climate change has changed the glacier existence, too. The response of the glacier to the global climate change is a hotspot of the international glaciological research nowadays. China is one of the mid-latitude countries, where glaciers are most widely distributed in the world, and the glacier is such important water resources in arid western regions of China that the glacial changes impact the environment profoundly. The glacier system model, based on the glacier system theory, is a hydrological evaluation model dealing with glaciers change. In the light of the method of the system theory, the prediction deals with macro-scale glaciers change instead of the individual simulation. The model uses the now available glacier data efficiently and predicts the tendency of the glacier response wholly. Taking the Jinsha River Drainage＇s glaciers system as an example, according to the natural environment characteristics, the drainage glacier system was divided into the source regional glaciers system and outer-source regional glacier system. Based on the glacier system model, the responses were predicted of the glacier system to the global climate change under different climate change scenarios. The sample confirms excellent correctness and feasibility of the glacier system model. The results of model research will play an active role to cope with the influences the global change maybe result in.