中文摘要：

本文基于马尔科夫区制转移模型识别和分析我国经济周期波动特征以及经济周期阶段性变迁的可能性，并对未来3年内我国经济增长的运行趋势变化以及经济周期所处状态进行判断和预测。研究发现，在步入2008年以后我国经济一直处于“低速增长阶段”，并在未来3年中仍将处于这一阶段，这说明金融危机的影响具有一定的持续性，但是随着时间的推移，我国经济处于“低速增长阶段”的可能性逐渐减小，而处于“适速增长阶段”或”决速增长阶段”的可能性不断加大。虽然我国经济增长可能会在2009年第3季度达到经济周期的低谷，但在未来3年中总体将呈现出逐渐回暖的态势。

英文摘要：

In this paper, based on the two regimes and three regimes switching model with mean process to identify and analyze the volatility and the stage transfer of business cycle in China. Meanwhile, we can judge and forecast the phases of China＇s business cycle and the growth trend. We have found that after 2008, China＇s economy has been in ＂slow growth stage＂; in the next 3 years, China＇s economy will remain in ＂slow growth phase＂, but as time goes on, the probability of our economy in the ＂low growth stage＂ will decrease, and in the ＂high growth stage＂ or ＂suitable growth phase＂ will increase. In the next 3 years, the economic growth rate of China have an upward trend, overall, but the economic growth rate will be the lowest in the third quarter of 2009.