基于中国气象局公布的1961-2006年中国165个国际交换站无缺测的逐日平均气温资料,利用随机重排去趋势波动分析(S-DFA)方法,计算并分析了中国极端高温事件阈值的空间分布特征,并对S-DFA方法在实际资料中的应用进行了检验。从可预报性的角度给出了极端高温事件强度综合指标的定义。该综合指标将极端高温事件的发生频次和强度综合起来,兼顾不同地区各自特有的区域气候背景,进一步说明综合指标定义的合理性。基于极端高温事件综合指标的空间分布规律,将1961-2006年间中国极端高温事件分为4个不同等级的地区。极端高温事件综合指标在20世纪90年代初期之前一直保持平稳的波动变化,之后则一直处于上升之中,尤其是在90年代中后期开始迅速上升。
Using S-DFA method,the thresholds of extreme high-temperature events from 1961 to 2006 are obtained and spatial-temporal characteristic distributions are analyzed.The effectiveness of S-DFA method is also validated through extreme event detection using the temperature series.Giving a definition composite index of extreme low-temperature event from the angle of predictability,this composite index integrate the information of the frequency and the strength of the extreme low-temperature events,and consider the characteristic of regional climate system.Based on the composite index,China are divided into four different zones by their own rank.The composite index of extreme high-temperature event in the 20th century until the early 1990′s have maintained smooth fluctuations,but after the early 1990′s,the composite indicator has been on the rise,especially in the late 1990′s rapidly rise.