中文摘要：

文章基于向量自回归模型，运用湖南省2000—2009年经济数据，探讨了现代物流发展水平与制造业发展的协同关系。结果显示，现代物流服务业与制造业之间形成了一个相互作用、相互影响的协同演进的循环累积因果关系，两大产业的协同问题将关系到整个产业结构的优化与升级。因此，推动现代物流业与制造业的协同发展，是提高现代物流发展水平、加速制造业发展进程的重要途径。

英文摘要：

Based on economic data in Hunan Province in 2000 - 2009, the paper established the VAR model between the logistics service and manufacturing development, and revealed the dynamic evolution of the linkage through the pulse function and variance decomposition. The results show that there has a strong synergic linkage between the logistics and manufacturing. Therefore, the pro- motion of joint between logistics and manufacturing development of logistics integration is the basic way to promote and accelerate the development of logistics and the precess of manufacturing.