中文摘要：

目前,资源型城市脆弱性研究已经成为推进资源型城市可持续发展与社会现代化建设过程中关注的热点问题。文章以焦作—大庆—铜陵—白山市4个不同类型资源型城市为研究对象,运用集对分析法（SPA）和趋势外推法对其脆弱性进行评估及预测,以探究不同类型资源型城市脆弱性的变化规律,并揭示其脆弱性水平在未来10年的波动特征并进行对比分析。结果表明：2003-2015年间,各城市的脆弱性指数平均值呈铜陵市=焦作市〉白山市=大庆市,且截止到2015年,铜陵、焦作和大庆均处于中等脆弱水平,白山市处于较低脆弱水平;截止到2025年,白山市将会由2015年的较低脆弱水平下降至低脆弱度水平;大庆市将由中等脆弱度水平下降至低脆弱度水平;而铜陵和焦作市将会由中等脆弱度下降至较低脆弱度,这4个城市的脆弱性程度将呈铜陵市〉焦作市〉大庆市〉白山市。最后,结合实证结果,提出具体调控对策。

英文摘要：

At present, the study on the vulnerability of resource-based cities has become a hot issue in the process of promoting the sustainable development of resource-based cities and social modernization construction. This paper takes four different types of resource- based cities as the research object, which are Jiaozuo, Daqing, Tongling and Baishan.Then the paper evaluates and predicts the vulnerability of different types of resource-based cities to explore its change rules by applying Setpair analysis （SPA） and trend extrapolation, and reveals the volatility characteristics of the next 10 years and makes a comparative analysis. The results show that： From 2003 to 2015, the average value of vulnerability index of each city presents Tongling = Jiaozuo 〉 Baishan City = Daqing. And by 2015, Tongling, Jiaozuo and Daqing are at a medium level of vulnerability, while Baishan is at a lower level of vulnerability; By 2025, Baishan will decline from a lower level of vulnerability in 2015 to a low level of vulnerability, Daqing will decline from moderate vulnerability to low vulnerability, Whereas Tongling and Jiaozuo will fall from medium vulnerability to lower vulnerability, The degree of vulnerability of these four cities will show Tongling 〉 Jiaozuo 〉 Daqing 〉 Baishan. Finally, the paper, according the empirical results, puts forward specific control measures.