中文摘要：

为了研究工程项目关键链资源计划在施工过程中易受不确定性风险影响而出现进度偏差的问题，提出了将挣值分析嵌入Weibull分布，并与Bayes估计相融合的进度偏差预警控制模型．该模型主要用于解决资源计划前后衔接任务的递阶信息转化，提高进度偏差的不确定性预测能力，以便辅助项目管理人员和决策者采取纠偏控制措施保障计划正常进行．最后，实例分析结果表明了该模型的合理性和有效性．

英文摘要：

In order to solve the problem that the project critical chain resource plan is easier influenced by uncertain risks of the construction process and deviate, the paper presents a modeling of schedule variance early-warning control where value analysis is embedded into Weibull distribution, and it is integrated with Bayes estimation. The main purpose is to solve the hierarchical information conversion of resource plan cohesive tasks, improve the uncertain prediction ability of schedule variance, and take corrective measures for project managers and decision makers to ensure the plan＇s normal proceeding. Finally, a case analysis shows that the proposed model is correct and effective.