中文摘要：

本文通过构建随机前沿引力模型估计了中国的“前沿”出口水平以及出口潜力，并将影响中国出口的因素分为自然决定因素和人为决定因素，分别估计了这些因素对于出口的影响程度，由此确认了中国出口的需求拉动特征。同时，中国出口处于低效率状态，说明其所受的人为贸易阻力较大，随着世界贸易环境的改善，中国仍然具有较大的出口潜力。在当前外部需求减弱的情况下，通过短期政策促进出口企业产能具有重要的危机应对意义。从长期而言，出于维护国家经济安全的考虑，注意开发国内市场，启动内部消费，适当降低中国经济增长的对外依赖程度仍然是经济政策的重要指向。

英文摘要：

Under the circumstance that China is suffering from an unprecedented downturn in export now, this paper estimates the frontier export performance and export potential by formulate a stochastic frontier gravity model. In this framework, the factors that influence China＇s export are further divided into two parts： natural determinants and manmade determinants of export. This work confirms the demandoriented property of China export. Export from China is running in a low efficiency due to the manmade trade resistance. With the improvement of world trade environment, it will be renewed gradually. In the light of weakness of current outside demand, stimulation package aimed to keep capacity of export enterprises has essential implications. In the long run, exploring inside market and reducing the dependency of China＇s growth on export are the direction of economic policies.