中文摘要：

研究目的：从多尺度空间关联耦合的角度,构建一个能够动态、定量表征不同尺度土地利用变化及其驱动机理的土地利用变化多尺度驱动力系统动力学耦合模型。研究方法：以系统动力学理论与方法为指导,构建耦合模型主控反馈环与耦合关系模块形成耦合模型总体框架,并对该耦合模型进行实现与应用验证。研究结果：该耦合模型模拟结果相对误差的均值为-0.155%,相对误差分布在[-3.91%,4.98%]区间内的样本数占样本总数的90.3%,基本达到了对三级实证研究区土地利用变化及其多尺度驱动机理时域行为的再现与模拟。研究结论：耦合模型构建思路与方法较为可靠,能够为土地利用规划数量结构在不同尺度间的配置与协调提供有效的预测手段。

英文摘要：

The purpose of this study is to develop a new driving forces coupling model for multi-scale land use change based on System Dynamics, which can measure land use change and its driving mechanism of different scales dynamically and quantitatively. A main control feedback loop and a coupling relationship module are constructed with the theory and method of System Dynamics. We applied the new model to a case study. The results of simulation and test of the new model have shown that the mean of relative error is-0.155%, the relative error values distributed in [-3.91%, 4.98%], which accounts for 90.3% of the total samples. It is concluded that the construction idea and method of the new model is reliable, and it can provide a prediction method effectively for the configuration and coordination of quantitative structure in land use planning for different scales.