利用东北及北海道地区7个气象站点1909~2003年逐月气温数据,建立两地区近百年来年、季气温序列,对近百年来两地区气温变化特征进行对比分析,结果表明:近百年来东北及北海道地区气温变化存在显著的增温趋势,前者进入显著升温期早于后者,其中对年均温上升趋势贡献较大的是冬、春两季,夏季升温幅度最小。两地区年均温表现出强的增温持续性,未来气候将继续变暖;两地区都存在9、28、40—42a的变化周期,但两者主周期的次序所有不同;近百年来两地区气温变化在不同时间尺度上具有不同突变点。
The temperature data used for the study came from seven meteorological stations in the regions of Northeast China and Hokkaido, Japan. The mean annual and seasonal temperature time series for the both areas were obtained by simply averaging the seven stations' values in the period, checking the representation of the series. Based on the time series , this paper made a systemic comparative analysis on the characteristics of temperature variation. The results indicated that there was a obvious increasing trend of temperature during the last century in both areas . Northeast China entered the period of evident temperature increase earlier than Hokkaido. Mean annual temperature change was mainly due to higher rates of temperature increase in winter and spring , and the rate of summer was the lowest. The mean annual temperature in the regions of Northeast China and Hokkaido had an evident Hurst phenomenon, namely a persistence trend component, and temperature would warm up continually in the next 100 years. Temperature in the regions of Northeast China and Hokkaido demonstrated oscillation characteristics with 9, 28,40- 42 year cycles, but the sequence of their main periods was different, and there were different sudden change years at different time scales.