中文摘要：

在分析研究区水文地质条件的基础上,基于水量平衡原理,应用Visual MODFLOW建立了研究区地下水系统水流模型。利用观测井观测资料及南水北调输水实测资料,对模型进行了识别和验证,证明所建模型有效合理。并预报了未来5年地下水位的变化情况,结果表明：①2020年地下水流场未发生明显变化;②2020年地下水位得到整体抬升,最大抬升高度达6.0 m;③2020年地下水年内波动状态与2015年相比变化不大;④2020年地下水年变幅在0.5-1.0m之间;（5）2020年河道平均渗流量为9.8万m^3/d。

英文摘要：

Based on the analysis of hydrogeological conditions and the balance of water quantity in the study area, the flow model of the Liang-Ji basin is built by using Visual MODFLOW software. The model is identified and verified by the observation data and the measured data of the South-to-North water transfer, which proves the model＇s rationality and effectiveness. Moreover, the model forecasts the changes of groundwater level in the next five years. The results show that： ①The groundwater flow field will not change significantly in 2020. ②The groundwater table will overall uplift in 2020, and the maximum lifting height can reach 6.0 m. ③Compared with 2015, the groundwater fluctuation will change little within the year in 2020. ④ The annual variation of groundwater will range from 0.5 to 1.0 m in 2020. ⑤The groundwater can be recharged by 9.8× 10^4 m^3/d.