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径向基神经网络模型在杭州湾北岸岸线变化中的应用

期刊名称：上海国土资源
时间：2012.4.4
页码：74-78
分类：P737.1[天文地球—海洋地质;天文地球—海洋科学]
作者机构：[1]华东师范大学河口海岸学国家重点实验室,上海200062, [2]华东师范大学设备处,上海200062
相关基金：国家自然科学基金（41021064,41076050）; 上海市科技攻关项目（10dz1210600）; 教育部归国留学人员启动基金资助
相关项目：杭州湾北岸水下侵蚀/淤积波迁移及其沉积动力过程

关键词：杭州湾北岸, 岸线变化, 径向基, 神经网络模型, the northern bank of Hangzhou bay, shoreline changes, radial basis function, neural network

中文摘要：

基于杭州湾北岸龙泉—南竹港弧形岸段实测岸滩断面与长江入海控制站大通站年输沙量资料,对杭州湾北岸岸线的变化及其趋势进行探讨。研究结果表明：受长江入海泥沙减少以及热带气旋和人类活动作用等影响,近10年来杭州湾北岸岸滩处于侵蚀状态。灰色关联分析进一步揭示,杭州湾北岸不同等深线的进退对长江入海泥沙减少的响应在时间尺度上有一定的滞后。同时,不同等深线的进退亦展现较强的相关性特征。鉴于此,利用大通年输沙量和不同等深线进退的耦合关系,进一步构建了基于长江入海泥沙和杭州湾北岸等深线变化的径向基神经网络岸线预报模型,其中模型输入向量为当年大通站年输沙量和杭州湾北岸-3m、-5m、-8m等深线距离大堤的位置,输出向量为次年0m岸线距离大堤的位置。经检验,构建的径向基神经网络岸线预报模型误差小于20%,可用以预报杭州湾北岸岸线的动态变化。

英文摘要：

Based on observed data of the annual mean sediment discharge at Datong station and measured profile data from the Longquan–Nanzhu coast,we examine shoreline change within the northern Hangzhou Bay（NHB）,and perform a numerical simulation of shoreline change.The results show coastal erosion within Longquan–Nanzhu harbor in recent decades due to a sharp decrease in sediment discharge from the Yangtze River,the effects of typhoons,and anthropogenic influences.The results of grey relational analysis indicate that temporal variations in the locations of isobaths within the NHB lag behind the reduction in sediment supply from the Changjiang Estuary.A strong positive relation is found among the changes in the locations of various isobaths.Based on the coupling relations between the annual sediment discharge at Datong and changes in the locations of isobaths,a radial basis functional neural network mode（RBF） is established,using input vectors of the annual sediment discharge at Datong,and the locations of isobaths（–3m,–5m,and –8m）.The output vector is the shoreline location（0m isobath） in the following year.The RBF network mode has an error of less than 20%,indicating it is useful for predicting the nature of future shoreline changes.