中文摘要：

相对海平面上升引发的海岸潜在侵蚀是海岸带资源利用与规划的重点关注内容。基于杭州湾北岸龙泉一南竹港岸段实测断面资料，利用历史岸线后退和淹没法则计算法分析了该地区的海岸变化对海平面上升的响应。结果表明：近10a来岸滩呈侵蚀后退趋势，年侵蚀速率为3．7～5．7m／a，相对海平面上升对岸滩迁移后退的贡献为2％～6％；未来100a岸滩迁移后退将超过300m，其中相对海平面上升可能导致岸滩后退的距离约为20m，而目前海堤位置与0m等深线间的平均水平距离不超过60m，因此需将海平面上升造成的海堤潜在危险纳入海堤安全与稳定性的进一步研究，予以系统分析。

英文摘要：

Based on the measured section data from Nanzhu Port bank at the northern bank of Hangzhou Bay and using the law of historical shoreline recession and submergence, the response of shore bank change to sealevel rise was analyzed. The results show that the shoreline presents a recession trend in the last decade with mean yearly erosion rate of 3.7-5.7 m/a, in which the contribution of relative sea-level rise is 2%-6%, and that there will be a recession of over 300 m in 100 years, in which about 20 m may be resulted from relative sea-level rise. Since the mean distance between the present sea bank and 0 m depth contour is less than 60 m, potential menace induced by sea-level rise should be considered in further research of sea bank security and stability.