中文摘要：

根据GM（1，1）模型的建模机理，建立了银川市人口预测模型，通过模型对“十一．五”期间银川市人口进行了预测，依据人口的发展特点提出银川市未来在人口与水资源方面的建议与对策，为建设大银川的人口发展规划提供了科学的依据。

英文摘要：

In this paper, Yinchuan＇s population prediction model is established which is based on the GM（1,1） model theory. According to the model, Yinchuan＇s population is pred-icted in the period of The 1 lth Five-year Plan. And some suggestions about Yinchuan＇s population and water resources in the future are put forward . It will supply the sciential foundation to build the big-Yinchuan＇s population development plan.