中文摘要：

以2002年和2005年该区遥感数据为基础,使用马尔可夫模型预测额济纳沿河区各景观类型动态变化。初步结论：按照现在的输水情况,在未来的30年内,裸地和沙地面积将有所减小;而水域、荒漠稀疏草地、河岸灌草林地、河岸乔灌林地面积将有所增加;盐碱地、荒漠稀疏灌丛和交通用地面积变化不大。

英文摘要：

Markov model was used to predict the kinds of landscape change along rivers area in Ejina Oasis based on remote sense data in 2002 and 2005.From this we reached the primary conclusions：the areas of bare land and sandy land will be decreasing,the areas of water,desert grassland,riparian woods and riparian shrubbery will be increasing,and the areas of saline land,desert shrubbery and traffic land has little change,which is based on the situation of water transfer in future 30 years.