中文摘要：

以2002年至2012年长三角16个城市的服务业为例分析了集聚经济的空间演变及产业结构升级效应。基于散点图研究发现长三角服务业集聚经济存在空间相关性；基于条件散点图研究发现集聚经济对产业结构升级的影响存在区域差异，其中地方化经济的区域差异较小，城市化经济的区域差异较大；基于静态面板回归分析发现地方化经济对产业结构升级的影响显著为正，而城市化经济对产业结构升级的影响则显著为负；基于动态面板回归分析发现地方化经济对产业结构升级的长期影响依然为正，但有所减弱，而城市化经济对产业结构升级的长期影响为负。

英文摘要：

Based on the service industry of 16 cities in Yangtze River Delta from 2002 to 2012, this paper analyzes the spatial evolution of agglomeration economy and its effect on industrial structure upgrading. Scatter Plot study reveals that there exists a spatial correlation about the effect of agglomeration economy on service industry of Yangtze River Delta. Conditional Plot study finds there exists regional difference about the effect of agglomeration economy on industrial structure. Static Panel regression analysis finds the effect of localization economy is significantly positive, but urbanization economy is significantly negative. Dynamic Panel regression analysis finds that the localization economy has a cumulative effect on industrial structure upgrading, while the effect of the urbanization economy is negative.