随着虚拟经济在整体经济中占比的增加,货币政策运行机制趋于复杂化,政策效果往往偏离原本的意图。因此了解当前经济环境下货币政策的运行机制,将有助于更准确地预期货币政策的效果。本文采用平滑转移自回归(STAR)模型,分别以货币供应量和实际利率作为货币政策工具研究货币政策对实体经济和虚拟经济的非线性影响。结果表明,实体经济更多的受到货币供应量的非线性影响;而虚拟经济则更多的受到实际利率的线性影响。
As the proportion of fictitious economy in the overall economic structure increases, the mechanism of monetary policy has becomes more complicated. The effect of monetary policy always deviates from its initial intention. The research on the mechanism of monetary policy could help policy makers to anticipate the effects of monetary policy more accurately. This paper employs the smooth transition autoregressive regression(STAR) model to investigate the nonlinear effect of monetary policy on both real economy and fictitious economy. Monetary supply and real interest rate are used as measures of monetary policy. Our results show that real economy is affected nonlinearly only by monetary supply. On the contrary, fictitious economy is more influenced by real interest rate.