中文摘要：

真空开关永磁机构储能电容的失效诊断是实际应用中未解决的重要问题．基于永磁机构的工作原理，分析了其储能电容（电解电容）主要的退化机理与等效模型，选择等效串联电阻和电容量作为故障特征参数，提出了基于系统辨识理论的储能电容状态评估方法，利用最小二乘支持向量机（LsSVM）算法实现了对等效串联电阻和电容量值的预测，分析了未来时刻电解电容的状态变化．仿真实例验证了该评估与预测方法的有效性．

英文摘要：

The failure detection of the energy-storage capacitor is an important issue to be solved in permanent magnetic actuator for vacuum switch. Based on the operating principle of permanent magnetic mechanism, the degradation mechanism of the energy-storage capacitor （electrolytic capacitor） and equivalent circuit model were studied. The equivalent series resistance （REsR） and capacitance （C） values were selected as feature parameters to identify the faults. An assessment method was proposed by introducing the system identification theory. Furthermore, the least squares support vector machine （LS-SVM） algorithm was used to predict the values of RESR and C, then the capacitor＇s condition changes could be obtained and analyzed. show the effectiveness of this method. The simulation experiments assessment and prediction