考虑到中国转型期要素市场存在扭曲的典型事实,首先从产业结构、环保技术、要素市场扭曲及经济发展等渠道,阐释FDI对碳排放绩效的影响机理;然后构造联立方程组,检验FDI和要素市场扭曲影响碳排放绩效的机制;最后采用弹性分析法测算FDI对碳排放绩效的总效应及细分效应,并基于反事实检验法评估要素市场扭曲引发的FDI环境效应的损失。结果发现:(1)FDI通过产业结构与要素市场扭曲途径恶化了碳排放绩效,但能通过推动环保技术进步和经济增长改善碳排放绩效;(2)要素市场扭曲不仅强化了FDI负面的产业结构效应,且弱化了FDI对环保技术正向的溢出效应,因此不利于发挥FDI对环境的积极影响;(3)FDI总体上改善了碳排放绩效,消除要素市场扭曲可使FDI的环境福利效应提升约102.4%。因此。深化要素市场改革,对促进FDI正向的环境效应,实现可持续发展至关重要.
Based on the fact that there is distortion in factor market in Chi- na's transition period, this paper explains the mechanisms of FDI on carbon emis- sions performance from four aspects of industrial structure, environmental protec- tion technology, factor market distortions and economic development, and then constructs the simultaneous equation model to test the impact mechanisms of FDI and factor market distortions on carbon emissions performance. Finally, the total effect and subdivision effect of FDI on carbon emissions performance are mea- sured by elasticity analysis method, and calculates the loss of environmental effect of FDI caused by factor market distortions based on counterfactual measurement method. The main findings are: (1) FDI exacerbates carbon emissions performance through the channels of industrial structure and factor market distortions, but can improve carbon emissions performance by promoting environmental technology and economic growth; (2) the factor market distortions not only strengthen the negative industrial structure effect of FDI on carbon emissions performance, but al- so weaken the positive spillover effect of FDI on environmental technology, there- fore, it is not conducive tothe positive impact of FDI on carbon emissions perfor- mance; (3) on the whole, FDI can improve carbon emissions performance. Elimi- nating the factor market distortions can significantly improve the environmental ef- fect of FDI. The above conclusions are still robust after taking into account differ- ent measures and estimation methods, as well as the endogeneity of FDI.