中文摘要：

开关操作时间的稳定是相控开关实现选相操作的前提，实际开关操作时间受各种因素的影响，具有较大的分散性，很难直接满足选相操作的要求。对影响开关操作时间分散性的各种因素．包括操作电压和温度等环境因素以及闲置时间、操作次数和老化磨损等操作历史因素进行了分析．讨论了目前常用的开关操作时间补偿与预测方法的特点．在此基础上提出了一种基于多元线性回归法的开关操作时间的补偿与预测方法，该方法通过建立多因素时间序列模型，同时实现了对环境因素和操作历史等多种影响因素的补偿．测试结果表明该算法预测值误差小于0．2％，对应的时间偏差小于0．1ms，完全能满足开关选相操作的要求．验证了算法的有效性。

英文摘要：

The stable operating time of circuit breaker is the precondition of controlled switching,but different factors have influences on it. Various factors are analyzed,including voltage,temperature,waiting period,operation times,aging and abrasion,and the usual prediction and compensation methods are introduced. A method based on multi- element liner regression is presented,which compensates the environmental and mechanical influences. Test results show that the operating time prediction error of the proposed algorithm is less than 0.2 %,corresponding to 0.1 ms.