中文摘要：

针对复杂装备故障预测问题，本文提出一种基于故障模式，影响及危害性分析（failuremode，effectsandcriticalityanalysis，FMECA）知识的故障预测贝叶斯网络模型（failurepredictionBayesiannetwork，FPBN）建模方法．首先，在分析现有FMECA知识所包含故障信息的基础上，提出了基于FMECA单元的FPBN网络结构转化方法和FPBN概率参数计算方法，建立起对应的FPBN单元模型．然后，对复杂装备各组成部分对应的FPBN单元模型进行连接，构建整体系统的FPBN集成模型．最后，根据某机载平视显示器（headupdisplay，HUD）FMECA知识，建立了HUD电子组件的FPBN模型实例．实例分析结果表明，基于FMECA知识建立的FPBN模型具有不确定性表达和定量分析方法的优势，能够准确、有效地进行复杂装备故障预测．

英文摘要：

To establish practical failure prediction model and facilitate its applications, this paper proposed a failure prediction Bayesian network （FPBN） modeling method based on the failure mode, effects and criticality analysis （FMECA）. According to the useful failure relationships embedded in the FMECA unit, the FPBN network construction and the probability parameter computation algorithms were discussed to build the corresponding FPBN unit model. Then, the FPBN unit model of each part in the complex equipment was connected with each other to establish the integrated FPBN model of the whole system. At last, based on the FMECA knowledge of a head up display （HUD）, the practical FPBN case of the electronic part was built for the actual failure prediction tasks. The case analysis results show that, the FMECA knowledge embedded FPBN model, which has the advantages of uncertainty representation and quantitative analysis, can perform effectively in the failure prediction of complex eauiDments.