经济适度性是洪水资源利用中三个重要适度性约束之一,在水资源开发利用程度较高的地区更加敏感。采用流域系统分析法,选取水资源开发利用率约50%的淮河流域为研究对象,基于淮河流域生态用水调度模型和现状水利工程条件,分析计算了淮河水系在满足生态适度性的前提下其8座规划的大型水库可增加的流域尺度的供水量和投资边际效益,分析了规划工程在洪水资源利用中的经济适度性。分析表明,淮河水系8座规划水库在保障流域生态用水前提下,对整个流域社会经济供水量的增量总和为7.2亿m3,小于水库的总设计供水能力22.38亿m3,且边界效益越来越小。可见,淮河流域通过工程措施进行洪水资源利用时,将在一定程度上受到经济适度性的制约。
Economic moderate criteria are one of the important restraints in floodwater utilization, especially in a basin of water resources highly developed. This paper presents an assessment on the economic moderate criteria of floodwater utilization, using a system analysis method in river basin scale and a case study of the Huai river basin where about 50% of the water resources has been developed. For eight planed large reservoirs, we have evaluated their abilities of water supply, marginal benefit, and economic moderateness of floodwater utilization, based on a Huai river ecological water regulation model. The statistics of simulations for the relationship of investments versus water supply benefits, show that to satisfy the ecological restraints, these new reservoirs can increase the water supply for public use only by a total volume of 720×10^6m^3, but far less than the design capability of 2238×10^6m^3. Thus, in this basin the utilization of flood water only by new reservoirs development will be constrained by economic moderate criteria in a certain extent. Key words: hydrology and water resources; floodwater utilization; economic moderate criteria; ecological water use regulation; Huai river basin