中文摘要：

以黄河下游为重点生态保护对象,构建水库生态用水调度模型,对黄河基准年和未来水平年不同情景的生态用水调度方案进行优化计算。结果表明：现状工程条件下,通过水库生态用水调度,可以保障河道内生态用水;未来水平年,新增工程措施和流域需水管理可减少社会经济和生态的缺水量,其中水需求管理对于缓解流域缺水效果最好;西线由于调水规模大,缩减缺水量效果显著,对于增加下游生态用水的边际效益较低;新增水库所增加的供水效益不明显。

英文摘要：

This paper develops an ecological water use scheduling model for the lower reach of Yellow River, focusing on simulation for maintaining an acceptable level of river health. Results show that under current water demands, the instream ecological water use can be largely provided through scheduling the use. In the future, if the water resources infrastructure and inter-basin water transfers remain unaltered, however, water deficits in social-economic demands and environmental demands will rise dramatically, as all the former demands are increasing. Implementation of water demand management, water transferring from other basins and new reservoir building, all can contribute to reduction in the predicted future water deficit. Of these measures, demand management is the most efficient, while reservoir building the least efficient. In terms of reduction in total deficit volume, implementation of the west line of south-to-north water diversion project is the most effective. However, it produces a lower marginal benefit of reducing water deficit.