中文摘要：

研究了一类考虑错分代价的故障预测技术安全性能评估方法。鉴于概率论不精确的特性，针对两类故障类别的统计数据构建了错分代价模型，在此基础上确立了错分代价最小的故障趋势判别定理；从两类故障类别出发，构建了多类故障类别预测的错分代价模型以及错分代价最小的故障趋势判别规则，并给出了故障预测技术安全性能评估的基本流程；用火箭控制系统故障检测的实例验证了错分代价模型的有效性，并对故障预测技术未来的安全性能评估的未来发展趋势进行了探讨。

英文摘要：

A new safety performance evaluation of the tault-prediction technology was researched based on misclassfication cost. First of all, a misclassification cost model for the statistical data of two fault-classificatory sets was constructed based on the inaccurate characteristic of probability theory, and the fault-direction decision rules of the running state were established by considering the minimum misclassification cost. Secondly, a misclassification cost model of numerous fault-classificatory sets was constructed, and the fault-direction decision rules were established by considering the minimum misclassification cost. And a basic flow of safety performance evaluation was provided for the fault prediction technology. Finally, the effectiveness of the model was verified by taking the fault detection of launch vehicle control system as an example, and the further development trend of the fault prediction technology was discussed.