利用实地调研的2 959户农户数据,分别采用OLogit、二元Logit和Poisson Hurdle模型,分析农户参与农地抵押融资意愿、响应决策及可得性,发现农户对农地抵押融资的认知和农村金融环境是影响农户参与意愿的主要因素;农户经营类型、生产投资比是影响农户决策的主要因素;农户社会资本、贷款经历、是否购买保险和主办金融机构数目是阻碍农户获得农地抵押融资的关键因素;研究还发现,同一组变量在补充双对数和截断泊松回归模型的估计结果中影响程度、方向以及影响个数都存在差异,说明农户能否获得农地抵押融资贷款比其获得抵押贷款的额度更重要。
Based on the data from a field survey of 2959 peasant households,using respectively OLogit,Binary Logit and Poisson Hurdle Model,this article analyses the farmers' willing for the involvement in mortgage financing with contracted management right of agricultural land,response decision-making and credit availability.It finds that the cognition to mortgage financing with contracted management right of agricultural land and rural financial environment are the main factors influencing the farmers involvement;Farmer types and production investment ratio affect farmers decision-making application;While household social capital,loan experience,whether to buy insurance and rural host number of mortgage loans to financial institutions and credit are the key factors that hinder the finance by mortgage farmers really get.The study also finds that differences exist in the same set of variables in double logarithm model and truncated poisson regression model estimation results of the influence degree and direction and impact number.It shows that it is more important for farmers to get access to mortgage loan financing than the amount they obtain.