本文采用排放系数法对宁夏地区1990—2009年能源消费数据进行碳足迹考察,通过平均分配余量分解模型估算出各分解效应对碳足迹动态变化的分别贡献率。研究发现:宁夏地区近20年碳足迹呈J型的阶段性的动态演进规律;其中经济规模效应对碳足迹加深的最高贡献率达到26.76%;能源效率与能源结构对碳足迹动态变化的贡献率在不同阶段的差异性较大,在缓慢增长阶段和稳定增长阶段,两种效应均发挥了减排的功能,而在快速增长阶段两种效应均表现为显著的正向作用,其中能源效率效应最高贡献率达到28.27%,能源结构效应的最高贡献率达到25.42%。
This paper estimates the carbon footprint of Ningxia area from 1990 to 2009 based on the emission coefficient method,and calculates the contribution rate of each decomposition effect making to carbon footprint change by decomposition method of average distribution cushion. The results show that the characteristic of carbon footprint is more like a "J" Curve for the latest twenty years in Ningxia area:and the most contribution rate of economic scale effect is up to 26.76% :the contribution characteristics of energy efficiency effect and energy structural effect are diversified, they make contribution to carbon emission reduction at two stages ,while they exert significantly positive effect to carbon footprint at another stage,and the most contribution rate of energy efficiency effect is up to 28.27%,the most contribution rate of energy structural effect is up to 25.42%.