中文摘要：

为了准确评价矿山采空区稳定性,分析其影响因素,结合采空区顶板下沉位移前期检测数据,先利用组合预测理论对顶板下沉位移的多种模型预测结果进行了组合,然后根据组合预测值对采空区稳定性进行评判。以采空区稳定性评价作为决策属性,以其影响因素作为条件属性,利用变精度粗糙模糊集对采空区稳定性评价知识系统进行概率决策分析,得到13条β为70%的β-约简概率决策规则。结果表明：对于该矿山而言,采空区面积、地应力大小和临时支护方式是评判采空区稳定性的决定性影响因素,所得概率决策规则的分类质量为62.96%,分类质量较高,可为采空区稳定性判定及规律分析提供参考。

英文摘要：

In order to accurately evaluate stability of mine goafs and analyze its main influential factors,according to the preliminary test data of goafs roof subsidence displacement,combination forecasting was applied to compose final predictive values of roof subsidence displacement by vary models,and then goafs stability was judged by resultant predictive values.Goafs stability was set as decision attribute,and its influential factors were set as condition attributes,variable precision rough fuzzy set was applied to probabilistically decision analyze assessment knowledge system of goafs stability,and 13 β-decision rules which β was 70% were got. It shows that goaf area,crustal stress size and temporary support way are decisive factors to goafs stability,and the classification quality of probabilistic decision rules is 62.96%,it is high,which can be references for stability judge and its law analysis.