进入21世纪以来,随着世界地缘政治格局的继续分化与重组,处于“边缘地带”的中南半岛地缘政治地位日益凸显,日渐成为域外大国争夺地缘利益的热点地区。中南半岛是中国倡导共建“21世纪海上丝绸之路”重要的战略支点,中国与五国双边关系的亲疏对“一带一路”的推进有着重要的影响。文章首先采用事件数据分析法衡量2001年~2015年6月间中国与中南半岛五国双边关系,进而归纳其规律与特征,发现:中国与五国双边关系总体呈现不同程度波动下降态势;双边关系最高峰值的出现均由同一类事件影响产生、中缅关系下滑与中越关系恶化基本同期、双边关系程度的地域空间格局分异较为明显。中国与五国双边关系的演进是域外大国的干预、国家利益驱使下“大国平衡外交”
In the 21st century, with the continued differentiation and re-structuring of the world geopolitical landscape, Indochina's geopolitical po-sition, which had long been in the "fringe", has become increasingly promi-nent. Extraterritorial powers are competing for geopolitical interests in thisregion. What's more, Indochina is a strategic fulcrum in the "21st CenturyMaritime Silk Road" initiative advocated by China, the development of bilater-al relations between China and the five countries are of great importance.Therefore, using event data analysis, this article quantitatively measured thebilateral relations between China and five Indochina countries in the periodfrom 2001 to June 2015, and our findings are as follows: 1) Bilateral rela-tions between China and the five countries showing an overall downward trendin varying degrees; 2) The appearance of peak value of bilateral relations isdriven by the same type of events; the worsening of China-Myanmar relationsoccurred at the same time with the deteriorating of China-Vietnam relations;3) The evolution of bilateral relations between China and the five countries isa mixed result of complicated forces, including the intervention of extrater-ritorial powers, the "balance-of-diplomacy" national interests of these fivecountries, the promoting of regional and sub-regional cooperation, border se-curity and stability and other mechanisms. Based on the above analysis, weproposed some suggestions to the Chinese diplomacy related to the Indochinacountries: 1) Make efforts to enhance political mutual trust level with eachcountry; 2) properly handle South China Sea territorial disputes in China andVietnam; 3) actively urge the parties to maintain internal security and sta-bility; 4) using the "the Belt and Road" vision, to inhance the economic andcultural cooperation between China and Indochina countires.