中文摘要：

水驱油田高含水期稳产难度大,容易发生产量的异常波动,给油田生产带来损失。为提高油田的抗风险能力,建立了产量运行预警的两级模糊综合评判模型,设计的模型具有开发综合预警及产量构成预警的双重功能。从产量构成、能量补充及管理因素3个方面筛选了10种影响产量的显著性指标并分析了各自的影响特征,利用矿场数据计算得到指标集的权重向量,指标隶属度矩阵的计算采用“（0,1）隶属度方法”。以胜利油田A、B采油厂的历史生产情况对预警模型进行了验证,结果表明,模型能对产量的大幅异常下降提前准确预警,并从概率角度提供风险参考;基于产量构成的预警结果可分析造成产量异常下降的原因,从而进一步为决策调整指明方向。

英文摘要：

Maintaining stable production is difficult for a water flooding oilfield during the high water-cut period, which usually brings about losses to the oilfield company due to the abnormal fluctuation of production. In order to provide a basis for the adjustment strategy, making oilfields more risk-resistant, a 2-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for early warning of production running is established. The model includes dual functions： The early warnings in production composition and production integration. Ten significant indexes influencing the production are chosen related with the production composition, the reservoir energy complement and the management; Meanwhile the influences of these indexes are analyzed. Index weight vector is calculated by using the production data, and the membership matrix is maintained by using the （0,1） membership degree method. The established model is validated through historical production data of A and B oil extraction factories in Shengli Oilfield. It is shown that the early warning for situations of production＇s abnormal decrease is accurate. The model also provides a risk reference from probabilistic prospective. Besides, the early warning in production composition can help analyze the production＇s abnormal decrease to determine the direction of the production adjustment.