中文摘要：

建设中国自由贸易试验区是“新常态”下国家深化改革与扩大开放的一项重大战略，是新一轮制度创新的“试验田”。文章以上海自贸区为例，基于面板数据的政策效应评估方法，利用地区间经济发展的相关性构造上海市的反事实经济绩效，并对比上海市的真实经济绩效，进而估计出上海自贸区产生的“制度红利”效应。研究表明：（1）上海自贸区建设显著促进了上海市GDP、投资、进口和出口的增长，且这一结论在多项稳健性检验后依然成立；（2）随着制度创新的进一步深化和扩大，扩区后的自贸区建设对上海市经济的促进效应更加显著；（3）上海自贸区以制度创新为核心推进改革，具有显著的长期经济效应。文章客观地评价了上海自贸区建设的经济绩效，为我国自贸区的建设、完善和复制推广提供了有益的政策建议。

英文摘要：

Under ＂new normal＂, the establishment of pilot free trade zones in China is an important national strategy of deepening the reform and opening-up, and is an ＂experi- mental field＂ of Chinese new-round institutional innovation.Taking Shanghai PFTZ as an example, this paper uses the panel-data program evaluation approach to construct the counterfactual economic performance of Shanghai by exploiting the correlations of econom- ic development among different regions.Then it compares the counterfactuals with the real economic performance of Shanghai and evaluates the effects of institutional dividends caused by Shanghai PFTZ.It comes to the findings as follows： firstly, the establishment of Shanghai PFTZ significantly promotes the increase in GDP, investment, import and ex- port in Shanghai and the results still hold after different robustness checks; secondly, with further deepening and extension of institutional innovation, the expansion of Shanghai PFTZ has more significant promotion effects on Shanghai~s economy; thirdly, as Shanghai PFTZ promotes the reform with institutional innovation as the core, there exists a signifi- cantly permanent economic effect on Shanghai.This paper evaluates the economic perform- ance of establishing Shanghai PFTZ objectively and provides meaningful policy advices for the establishment, improvement, replication and expansion of free trade zones in China.