中文摘要：

引入支出增长预期变量，结合预防性储蓄动机等因素，能够较全面地解释居民的储蓄和消费行为。VAR模型分析说明，广东城镇居民的预防性储蓄动机高于全国城镇居民。导致这一现象的原因有：广东较高的市场化程度增加了居民面临的不确定性，较高的消费水平使支出预期对消费的影响减弱，改革过程中的非平稳性等。为化解高储蓄并促进消费的增长，应健全社会保障制度，保持改革的连续性和平稳性，抑制教育、住房和医疗保健等支出的过快增长，增加对贫困人口的转移支付力度，发挥资产财富效应的作用。

英文摘要：

The expectation for expenditure can explain residents＇ consumptions and savings, combined with precautionary motive. The VAR model testifies that the intensity of precautionary motive of GuangDong urban residents is superior to the others. There exists three main causes： the senior market level increasing the uncer- tainty of residents, and the upper consumption level lowering the influence of expenditure expectation for con- sumption, and non-placidity existing in the course of reformation. In order to stimulate economy of Guangdong province by means of lowering high savings propensity and promoting consumption, we should strengthen the system of social securities, and try our best to maintain the continuity and stability of reforms, and take actions to control the fast going-up of prices of medical treatment and housing and education, and increase the subsidies to the low-income people.