利用GRAPES_3Dvar系统,分别对2011年发生在四川境内的两次强降水个例进行了加密、常规探空资料的同化对比试验。结果表明,试验的各同化变量的平均、最大调整幅度都随高度增加而增加;通过对两个个例各个同化变量的增量场水平分布的分析可见,试验B主要对四川地区造成影响,试验C的影响区域分布在整个积分区域内,而试验D与试验C的各同化变量增量场分布相似,但它对四川地区各同化变量增量的调整幅度更大;另外B、C、D三组试验的降水预报相对控制预报都有所改善,试验D的预报更优,降水强度与降水落区预报与实况更为接近。
By using of the numerical model GRAPES and its 3D - VAR system, some contrast tests on the assimilation of intensive eonventional sounding data have been researehed based on two strong rainstorm oceurred in Sichuan Province in 2011. The results show that both the average and maximum adjustment of all model variables inerease with height. The analysis on the horizontal distribution of the innovation field of the two cases indicates that the influential area is limited to Sichuan Provinee in test B while the influential area in test C is the region of numerieal integration. The distribution of innovation field in test D is similar to that in test C but with greater adjustment. In addition, compared to the Control test, test B, C and D all improve the precipitation forecast and test D is the best with foreeast of both the precipitation region and intensity eloser to reality.