构建了衡量耕地—湿地协调发展的评价指标体系,并以三江自然保护区为例,采用综合指数法对耕地生产与湿地环境的协调发展水平进行了评价。结果表明:1954-2000年耕地生产与湿地环境比较协调,1995年协调度达最高点0.992,2000年二者综合发展水平达最高点0.389;2000-2005年协调度和综合发展水平开始出现大幅度下降,湿地开垦已经超过其临界规模,湿地面积的急速下降已威胁到区域的可持续发展。1995-2000年这段期间三江自然保护区耕地与湿地协调水平最高,此时耕地面积大约为2.6×10^4hm^2,湿地面积大约为3.5×10^4hm^2。此结果可以作为三江自然保护区湿地恢复重要的参考标准。在该标准下,通过改变传统农业发展模式和提高单产水平,三江自然保护区粮食可满足目前的需求,湿地重要的生态功能也可大大恢复。
The wetlands in Sanjiang Plain are significant for regional ecological security owing to their important ecological functions such as conserving water source, keeping biodiversity, and so on. On the other hand, Sanjiang Plain plays a very important role in ensuring the Chinese food security with its suitable climate and allocation of water and land resources. But, during the course of constructing Chinese commodity grain base, the expansion of the farmland led to the shrink of wetlands. Human activities changed the pattern of land use in Sanjiang Plain and negatively affected on regional ecology and led to the declination of the regional ecological quality, even menace the ecological security. To lessen those contradictions require the coordinated development of arable land and wetlands. In order to seek rational proportion between the arable land and wetland, this paper analyzes the relationship between arable land and wetland in Sanjiang Plain, and constructs a set of index system for coordinated development between both. With the help of the exponential evaluation model, the coordinated development level of arable land and wetland in Sanjiang Reserve is evaluated. The results show that the coordinated development level between the arable land production and the wetland environment is better from 1954 to 2000. The topmost point of coordinated development level was attained in 1995, while that of comprehensive development level in 2000. However the coordinated index and comprehensive index take on a great degressive trend appeared in 2000, which is mainly resulted from the decline of wetland exploitation carrying capacity, particularly the reduce of wetland value has threaten the sustainable development of Saijiang Reserve. From 1995 to 2000 when the coordinated index and comprehensive index attained the topmost point, the area of arable land was about 26,000 hm^2 and the wetland was 35,000 hm^2 in Saijiang Reserve, which can be taken as a reference standard when defining the level of wetland restoration.