中文摘要：

环洱海地区是云南省具有高原湖泊生态脆弱区、民族文化多元融合区和乡村经济发展活跃区等多重叠合特征的典型区域,是全球气候变化影响的敏感区和脆弱区。以环洱海地区1951~2014年6个基本站点的逐年平均气温、极端最高气温、极端最低气温、降水量、最大日降水量和日降水量≥0.1 mm日数资料为基础。采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet小波分析和R/S分析等方法,研究了环洱海地区气候变化规律。结果发现：自1951年以来,环洱海地区年均气温和极端最低气温呈现出升高的趋势,而极端最高气温则呈现降低的趋势,变化速率分别为0.07℃/10 a、0.03℃/10 a和–0.14℃/10 a,对于年降水量、最大日降水量和降水日数而言,三者均为减少趋势,速率分别为–12.85 mm/10 a、–1.09mm/10 a和–1.73 d/10 a;环洱海地区年均气温、极端最高和极端最低气温均没有发生突变,年降水量和降水日数在2010年发生了一次减少突变,而最大日降水量则没有检测到突变的年份;环洱海地区年平均气温和年降水量在长时间尺度上的周期性变化最为显著,分别存在30 a和33 a左右的周期变化,并贯穿整个研究时段,而短时间尺度上的周期变化局域性特征突出;从未来演变趋势来看,年平均气温和极端最低气温将维持升温趋势,而极端最高气温则将持续降低趋势,年降水量继续减少的趋势未来将会逆转,但最大日降水量和降水日数两者将持续减少的概率更大。

英文摘要：

Around the Erhai region in Yunnan province as multiple composite characteristics of typical area, have plateau lakes ecologically fragile area, ethnic culture diversity area and rural economic development active region at the same time,and it is also a vulnerable area of climate change. The annual average temperature, extreme maximum temperature and extreme minimum temperature, precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and precipitation days over 0.1mm of six stations around the Erhai lake area from 1951 to 2014 data as the foundation data are adopted. By linear trend estimation,Mann-Kendall trend test, Morlet wavelet analysis and R/S analysis method, climate change law was studied. It showing that： since 1951, the annual temperature and extreme minimum temperature were showed a rising trend, while extreme maximum temperature showed reducing trends, the change rate were 0.07/10 a, 0.03/10 a and 0.14/10 a, respectively. The annual precipitation, maximum daily precipitation and precipitation days, are reduced trend, the rate is 12.85mm/10 a and1.73days/10 a respectively. Annual average temperature, extreme high and extreme low temperature changes were not mutate, annual precipitation and precipitation days in 2010 there was a mutation decrease, while the maximum daily precipitation detected no year of mutation; Around the Erhai lake regional annual average temperature and annual precipitation have long time scales of the most significant cyclical change, with 30 years and 33 years respectively; and throughout the study period, local characteristics of periodic change of the short time scale is outstanding. From the point of future evolution trend, the annual average temperature and extreme minimum temperature will keep warming trend, while the extreme maximum temperature will continue to reduce, and continue reduce trend to increase trend of annual precipitation probability is smaller, while the probability of both the maximum daily precipitation and precipitation days will continue reduce trend are significant.