基于1998-2011年吉林省工业经济总产值统计数据,利用单位根检验、Johansen协整检验方法研究了吉林省各地区工业经济发展的长期关联。构建的向量误差修正模型用以讨论区域工业经济的短期关系,以及各地区长期关联发生偏离时对短期增长的影响。结果表明,各工业经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,当吉林省各地区工业经济增长偏离长期均衡时,各地区将以一定力度从非均衡状态调整至均衡状态,吉林省各地区之间工业经济发展具有相互关联、促进和融合关系。
Statistic data of gross industrial output from 1998 to 2011in Jilin are collected to study the long-term relationships among different industry regions with Johansen co-integration and root test method.Vector Error Correction Model(VECM)is built to discuss the short-term relationship and the deviation effect of long-term relationships on the short-term one.The researches show that longterm relationship is balanced among the regions,and each region can self-adjust to keep the balance when deviation happens.The relationship between the regions is dependent on each other.