中文摘要：

根据城市重大突发事件的扩散过程，采用实证模拟方法，分析了城市重大突发事件的扩散路径，论述了城市重大突发事件的扩散方式、扩散阶段及特征，影响重大突发事件扩散及抑散的主要因素，并针对城市重大突发事件预警管理模式的构建提出了可操作性建议。

英文摘要：

According to the diffusion process of city significant contingencies, this paper analyzes the route,stages and characteristics of diffusion as well as the major influential factors in the process of diffusion through the real diagnosis simulation method. Finally, some feasible proposals to construct the forewarning management pattern of the city significant contingencies have been put forward.