中文摘要：

与常规的风电功率随机波动相比,风电功率爬坡事件具有明显的时序特性。为准确评估其对系统运行风险的影响,分析风电功率爬坡事件的特点及发生过程,并基于非序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法推导与之相适应的常规机组停运模型。通过对常规机组可能停运时刻和对应的运行状态分别进行抽样,考虑爬坡事件与常规机组停运之间的时序关系对评估结果的影响。在计及低频减载及AGC调节作用的基础上,采用频率越限次数和失负荷期望对系统运行风险进行评估。以IEEE RTS 24节点系统为例,对多种场景下系统运行风险进行评估及对比分析,验证了所提模型的有效性。

英文摘要：

Different from the normal wind power stochastic volatility,the wind power ramp event has obvious time-sequence characteristics. In order to accurately assess its impact on the risk of system operation,its characteristics and development process are analyzed and a corresponding outage model is deduced based on the non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation method for the conventional generator. The possible outage time and corresponding operating state of conventional generator are sampled respectively and the impact of time-sequence relationship between the ramp event and the outage of conventional generator on the result of assessment is considered. With the consideration of under-frequency loadshedding and AGC regulation,the frequency violation degree and load-loss expectation are adopted to assess the risk of system operation. The risk of system operation is assessed and analyzed in multiple scenarios for IEEE RTS 24-bus system,verifying the effectiveness of the proposed model.