中文摘要：

针对风电功率爬坡事件会严重影响系统有功平衡，甚至导致频率越限或失负荷等问题，提出一种应对风电功率爬坡事件的备用需求分析方法和预防控制策略。首先，基于序列运算理论将爬坡事件在时序上的概率预测结果转化为各时间断面上爬坡量的概率分布，并在此基础上结合风险可接受程度对系统备用需求进行了分析。然后，提出一种应对爬坡事件的预防控制策略，过程中不断根据最新的爬坡事件预测信息对调度计划进行调整，调整量包括风电场减载量、常规机组计划出力和备用容量。以含风电场的IEEE—RTS24为例对所提模型进行了仿真验证，结果表明该方法可对爬坡事件作用下系统运行风险进行准确评估，并可将风险控制在可接受范围内。

英文摘要：

Wind power ramp event can bring serious impact on active power balance of power system, which may cause system frequency differential out-of-limit or load lost. A reserve demand analysis and preventive control model to deal with wind power ramp event is proposed to solve the above problems. Firstly, the probability distributions of wind power ramp event predication information in time series is converted to the probability distributions in single time sections based on sequence operation theory, and the reserve demand to deal with ramp event is analyzed based on it. And then, a preventive control model is proposed, the dispatching schedule is adjusted according to the newest predication information with it, and the adjustments include the curtailed amount of wind power, the output power and reserve capacity of conventional generators. The simulation results with IEEE RTS 24 system show that the proposed model can assess the operation risk of power system accurately and the operation risk can be controlled within acceptable range.