内容摘要本文基于上海价格指数数据研究居民消费价格指数(CPI)、原材料燃料动力购进价格指数(REI)和工业品出厂价格指数(PPI)及房地产销售价格指数的传导效应。通过DAG技术和多元动态因果检验,给出4种价格指数的同期因果流,揭示它们之间的因果联系和信息传导。实证研究表明,PPI对CPI长期传导效应显著,房地产销售价格指数对CPI有一定的弱传导效应。我国应重新编制CPI,提高居住类权重。
This paper explores the transfer regulation among CPI, IPPI and the index of house price in ShangHai. The directed acyclic graphs techniques and multi dynamic causality test are used in providing contemporaneous and dynamic causal structure of the above-mentioned price indexes. The empirical results reveal that PPI transfer CPI in the long run, CPI is weakly affected by the index of house price,which suggest the CPI should be revised and endow more weight in housing.