中文摘要：

定量分析预报的不确定性,已成为防洪预报调度风险分析中的关键问题。本文基于Copula函数,提出了可以描述水文预报不确定性随时间演化特性的CUE（Copula-based Uncertainty Evolution Model）模型,并通过该模型模拟了水文预报不确定性序列;基于Monte-Carlo方法和模拟序列,计算了预报不确定性对水库防洪预报调度的影响。结果表明,CUE模型能够很好地模拟水文预报不确定性,采用预报预泄法,对三峡水库进行防洪调度,不会增加防洪风险率。

英文摘要：

It is of importance to analyze the influence of streamflow forecast uncertainty on reservoir opera-tion.This paper proposed a copula-based uncertainty evolution model to characterize the uncertainty evolu-tion process.Based on this model,the forecast uncertainty series was simulated.Then,the effect of stream-flow forecast uncertainty on reservoir operation was analyzed using the Monte-Carlo method.Results demon-strate that the proposed CUE model performs very well.When the pre-released operation method used,theflood risk cannot increase.