采用主成分分析方法测度工业化、信息化发展水平指数,运用线性滞后分布回归模型和多变量协整模型分析工业化与信息化的互动关系以及工业化、信息化对经济增长的影响。以吉林省为例,选取该省1984-2011年的相关数据整理分析后得出以下结论:吉林省工业化、信息化水平呈上升趋势,但工业化、信息化协调发展不够;工业化和信息化联系密切,工业化对信息化的促进作用大于信息化对工业化的促进作用。从长期看,工业化、信息化发展对经济发展有促进作用,且工业化对经济发展的促进作用远远大于信息化的作用。
This paper used principal component analysis method to measure the development level index of industrialization and informatization, took the linear lag distributed regression model and multivariate cointegration model to analyze the interaction of industrialization and informatization as well as industrialization, informatization and economic growth relationship. Taking Jilin Province as an example, selecting the data of 1984 - 2011, the authors got a conclusion: Firstly, the industrialization and informatization level of Jilin Province was rising, but the gap between the industrialization and informatization level was widening, which indicated an uncoordinated development. Secondly, industrialization and informatization interacted and pro- moted each other, but the role of informalization driven by industrialization was greater than industrialization on the role of informatization. Lastly, for a long term, the development of industrialization and informatization promoted economic growth, but the role of Jilin Province industrialization develop- ment on promoting economic development was far greater than the development of informatization.