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中文摘要：
相比于非主流的经济学家,2008年以来的美国经济大萧条对主流经济学家来说是一个巨大的震动,原因在于二者对于虚拟经济与实体经济间的互动关系一直存在争议。虽然政策的制定者依然依据的是主流经济理论,监管和透明度提升可以弥补市场失灵,但是有不少人对于监管在防范类似危机中的作用持怀疑态度。深层次的经济转型和对投机的限制对于经济的长期稳定来说是必要的。我们已经找到了一种衡量投机活动与生产活动的方法,被称之为＂投机蔓延＂模型,它提供了一个理解经济过度金融化的新视角。
英文摘要：
The Great Recession was an enormous surprise to mainstream economists,while not as much to non-mainstream economists,due to differences in views of the financial economy and its interaction with the real economy.While policy makers continue to follow mainstream economic theory,with the implication that regulation and transparency can fix any market glitches,many remain skeptical of the ability of regulation to prevent this type of crisis in the future.Deeper restructuring of the economy,with curbs on the worst practices of speculation,are necessary to provide long-term stability.We have explored one way in which to measure speculation versus production,in what we call a ＂speculative spread＂,and suggest that this may be an important means to understanding to what degree the economy is over-financialized.
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