中文摘要：

在能源短缺问题日益严峻、供电可靠性要求不断提高的大环境下，大幅度提高输电线路输送能力，降低输电成本势在必行。为了充分利用输电线路未来允许载流量，提出了基于灰色模型的载流量预测的方法，通过对原始数列进行平滑处理，削弱数据的主观性和偶然性的干扰。根据原始载流量序列存在多周期的特点，对传统灰色模型理论进行改进，提出了使用残差修正基对残差值进行补偿的方法来预测输电线路的载流量。该方法不仅具有传统灰色模型所需样本数据少、运算方便等特点，同时还体现了载流量的周期性规律，使拟合曲线更加接近原始数据，载流量的预测更加准确。通过对现场采集数据进行预测和分析，表明该模型较传统灰色模型的精度更高。基于上述模型，分析了载流量预测在输电线路潮流调度中的作用，载流量预测可以在保证电力系统安全运行的前提下，实现电网的更经济运行。

英文摘要：

With the increasingly serious energy shortages and the increasing demand for reliability of power supplying, it is imperative that the transmission capacity of transmission lines should be substantially improved to reduce the costs. In order to make full use of the future allowable current carrying capacity of transmission line, a method of predicting the current carrying capacity based on gray models is presented, which can weaken the interference of subjectivity and randomness of the data by smoothing the original sequences. According to the multi-cycle characteristic of original sequences of current capacity, the traditional gray model theory is improved, and the method of compensating the residuals by using residual modification basis to predict the current capacity of transmission lines is presented. This method not only has the characteristic of small sample data and easy calculation of traditional gray model, but also reflects the periodic law of carrying capacity. The curve fitting is closer to the original data and the forecasting of carrying capacity is more accurate. Based on the above principle, the forecasting result of carrying capacity is applied in power flow dispatching, which indicates that this method can be helpful for utilizing the power lines sufficiently on the premise of improving the reliability and safety of the power system.