中文摘要：

针对制造车间生产物流瓶颈漂移现象,将瓶颈漂移因素分为能力因素、需求因素和能力-需求综合因素,并采用时间能力因子、时间需求因子和质量保证能力因子对各种瓶颈漂移因素进行数字化描述,为瓶颈漂移因素耦合机理的研究提供数据支持。利用马尔可夫链描述各种瓶颈漂移因素的状态空间和转移概率,构建贡献函数,实现瓶颈漂移因素耦合机理的定量分析。以贡献度和质量保证能力为参数,建立瓶颈指数数学模型,以度量制造单元成为瓶颈的能力,为生产过程的控制和优化提供技术支持。通过对某一制造车间内生产物流瓶颈的预测和监控,验证了瓶颈指数的有效性和实用性。

英文摘要：

Aiming at the phenomenon of the production logistics bottleneck shifting because of uncertain manufacturing circumstances in manufacturing shop,the bottleneck shifting factors was firstly categorized into capability factor,requirement factor and capability-requirement factor,a digital description of bottleneck shifting factors was provided through time-capability factor,time-requirement factor and quality assurance capability factor to offer data for the research on the coupling mechanism of bottleneck shifting factors.Markov chain was used to describe the state space and transition probability of different bottleneck shifting factors and to establish contribution function with the aim of realizing the quantitative analysis on coupling mechanism of bottleneck shifting factors.Taking contribution degree and quality assurance capability as parameters,the mathematic model of the Bottleneck index was then built to measure the possibility of the manufacturing cell becoming bottleneck and to provide production process control and make the optimization with technical support in the further way.An example of forecasting and monitoring the production logistics bottleneck in one manufacturing shop was given to prove the validation and practicability of the prediction method.