中文摘要：

利用实测历史最高洪水位的分布模型及其参数，提出了推求现有堤防工程在不同设计标准（重现期）下洪水位的概率模型及其参数的统计分析方法；以某水文站实测的年最高洪水位为例，对现有堤防在不同的设防标准下漫顶失效概率进行了分析。

英文摘要：

Using the distribution probability model and its parameters of measured annual maximum flood levels, a statistical analysis method for probability model and its parameters of flood level at different design standard and different return period for existing dikes is proposed. As an example, the overtop failure probability of a dike under different floodwater standards is analysed using measured annual maximum flood level at a hydrological station.