中文摘要：

针对空投鱼雷作战使用的特点,详细分析了影响空投鱼雷发现概率的3个要素,即鱼雷搜索区域、鱼雷入水点散布和潜艇散布,以及各要素间的相互作用,进而使用概率论的方法分别构建了精确信息源和模糊信息源下空投鱼雷发现概率的解析模型。实验结果表明解析法的计算结果与模拟法的仿真结果有较好的一致性。

英文摘要：

According to the operation characteristics of the airdrop torpedo,three factors that have great effects on detection probability of the airdrop torpedo are studied in detail,including torpedo searching area,entry point dispersion and submarine dispersion. The interactions among the factors are also analyzed.Probability theory is used for constructing the analytical models of the detection probability respectively under accurate information source and fuzzy information source. The experimental results show that the calculation result of the analytical method is highly consistent with the result of the simulation method.