中文摘要：

目的运用时间趋势分析方法研究启东恶性肿瘤的变化趋势。方法利用启东肿瘤登记处积累的1972～2001年的登记资料，分析启东地区常见肿瘤发病率的变化趋势。计算粗率、调整率和变化百分比；配合调整率的线性回归模型，估计发病率的APC；同时分析各部位肿瘤发病率的年度变化贡献率及其统计学检验方法。结果男性中鼻咽癌、食管癌、胃癌、皮肤癌等部位发病率呈下降趋势，结肠癌、直肠癌、胰腺癌、肺癌、前列腺癌、膀胱癌、肾癌、脑肿瘤、非何杰金氏病以及白血病的发病率呈明显上升趋势；女性中鼻咽癌、胃癌、肠癌、皮肤癌、宫颈癌、肾癌等发病率呈下降趋势，结肠癌、直肠癌、胰腺癌、肺癌、卵巢癌、膀胱癌、脑肿瘤和白血病的发病率呈上升趋势。男性肿瘤中呈下降趋势贡献最大为胃癌，其次为肝癌；而发病率呈上升趋势的肿瘤中贡献最大的为肺癌，其次为直肠癌。在女性肿瘤呈下降趋势中贡献最大的是宫颈癌和胃癌；而发病率呈上升趋势的肿瘤贡献最大的是肺癌，其次为乳腺癌。结论时间趋势分析方法在研究恶性肿瘤发病率或死亡率变化趋势时值得推广。

英文摘要：

Objective To study change trend of malignant tumor in Qidong, Methods Cancer incidence data during 1972 to 2001 collected by the Qidong cancer registry was used to calculate the crude, age-adjusted rates. Annual percent changes （APC） was estimated by means of a linear regression model of adjusted rate, Annual contribution changes were also described. Results The decreasing rates were observed among the cancers of stomach, oesophagus, nasopharyrix , skin, colorectal in Qidong. The increasing rates among male were the cancers of colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, kidney, brain, leukemia, Non-Hodgkin＇s disease. The increasing cancers among female were colon, rectum, pancreas, lung, urinary bladder, galactophore, ovary, brain, Non-Hodgkin＇ s disease and leukemia. Conclusions Time trend analysis could be worth to use in analysing incidence rate or mortali ty of maligant tumor .