中文摘要：

注水开发是油藏主要的开发方式之一，注水开发过程中生产井过早水淹，将降低油藏采收率，影响开发效果，因此建立分层注水开发油藏水淹动态跟踪模型尤为重要。基于传质传热基本原理，根据井温曲线确定注水剖面，应用Poisson过程分析法与概率论方法，计算注水开发油藏任一时刻各小层中含水饱和度、见水时间和含水率。模型考虑了储层的微观孔隙分布，当储层逐步水淹后，计算含水率趋于实测含水率，计算误差小于59／6。实例应用表明：注水强度大，存在裂缝等高渗透通道的小层，含水饱和度变化快，见水时间早，且含水率上升快，反之。研究成果为注水开发油藏采取抑制或延缓生产井水窜措施提供了时间保证。

英文摘要：

Waterflood is one of the main oil reservoir development ways. Premature flooding of production wells during water flooding process will reduce oil recovery. Therefore,it is particularly important to establish a dynamic tracking model for reservoir water flooding of separated zone water injection. Based on the basic principles of heat and mass transfer, according to well temperature curve to determine the water profile, Poisson process analysis and stochastic process methods are adopted to calculate water saturation, water breakthrough time and water cut of each layer in water flooded reservoir at any one time. When oil reservoir gradually become water flooded, the calculated water cut of model considering micro-pore distribution of the reservoir tends to the measured water cut, and the calculation error is less than 5%. Case study shows that the layer of the higher injection rate, with high flow channel such as micro fracture, where there is the faster increase in water saturation, the shorter water breakthrough time and faster increase in water cut, and vice versa. Research result provides time guarantee to take measures for inhibiting or delaying water breakthrough of production wells.